Musings on the election

I was never one for good timing, and the fact that this general election is happening while I'm on Erasmus says it all really. Even though I'd much rather be at home experiencing the action rather than gazing from the side-lines, it definitely makes for an interesting spectacle catching up on all the news through the Internet (and BBC Radio 4, as its the only English-language radio station I can pick up on my shitty 8 euro LW Radio). However, I'm not foolish enough to wish that this election was being held in September so that I could chip in, as God knows what the Government would do in that time to further fuck up the country.

This is the first election in Ireland to fully utilize the Internet and social media (the fact that I'm giving my opinion on this blog kind of gives that away). Even though I am several hundred miles away, I can still catch up on all that happens on the campaign trail, which is a testament to the digital media revolution. I can read what crazy people think about it all on that hot-bed of grumpy old men on Politics.ie. I can read the so-called 'expert opinion' articles on the Irish Times website (though I take whatever Noel 'Former-Candidate-for-Fianna-Fail' Whelan says with a pinch of salt). I can watch the debates on Primetime or Vinnie Brown using the online players of RTE and TV3. I can guage the reaction to those debates on Facebook (not a big fan of Twitter to be honest). Though online forums in particular can be dragged into hyperbole by keyboard warriors, digital media will undoubtedly lead to a more informed election campaign, as people unsure of each party's policy can just download these documents at the click of a button.

That's enough about the technology – what about the politics of the whole thing? From watching the coverage of the first few days of the election, it seems to me that each party are pitching radically different messages to the electorate. Fianna Fail are basically saying that the others will be worse than them (Lenihan in particular has comically tried to deny that he said just one year ago that this country had «turned the corner») and their only policy so far is the IMF-manufactured 4-Year Plan – so much for the 'Republican Party'. They are hoping that the mere presence of Micheal Martin will convince the public that they have turned over a new leaf, with nothing to back this up. Their whole strategy has been to criticize every other party, but offer nothing of their own.

It's fairly obvious that Fine Gael are trying to play to their strengths – bring out the perceived heavy hitters like Micheal Noonan and Leo Varadkar, hide Enda as much as possible for the duration of the campaign, and highlight their shiny policies (which contain more of the neo-liberal economic illiteracy that has gotten us into this mess in the first place, like privatisating the ESB). The fact that their support has gone up while Enda was nowhere to be found seems to bear this hypothesis out. Their unique selling point (probably the only thing I remember from my marketing module) is the fact that they are realistically the only party that could achieve an overall majority, though it is extremely unlikely.

Of course I'm biased, but from a policy and ideas point of view, Labour have started most impressively in my view. In the past few days they have been releasing a policy paper every day – some are obvious ones, like the economic plan released last week. However, others are less obvious, but important in their own right, such as the broadband plan released last week which aims to roll out Next Generation Broadband in order to attract investment, as well as the Green Jobs paper (presumably trying to tempt the majority of Green voters from last time that feel they have been sold out by the Greens in government). That's without mentioning important upcoming policy papers, like the Education policy and a revamped Health policy. There has also been important updates in other regards, such as the iPhone and Android app (the only party to have one) and a much better looking website (the old one was a nightmare).

And despite all this, Labour haven't amazed in the first week – mainly due to personnel problems. I don't put too much weight on polls, but there is definitely a trend of losing votes to Fine Gael, and a revival for Fianna Fail can't be ruled out. The main reason for this stagnation in my view has been the sub par performances of some Labour reps such as Roisin Shortall, and more infamously, Joan Burton on Vincent Browne. Of course, there have been many more impressive media performances that outnumber the bad ones, but the media never pick up on this (UCC alumni Alan Kelly in particular has been impressive and he could yet follow in the footsteps of Dr Noel Browne by getting a Ministry in his first day in the Dáil). There has also been stupid faux pas which should just not happen on the election campaign (Pat Rabbite comment about the Fianna Fail lassies springs to mind). I still think the Labour Party is capable of getting up to 50 seats in this election, but more work needs to be put into the message that we want to get across, and in that regard the debates (no matter what format they end up to be) may very well be crucial.

Looking at the rest of the parties – the section that Micheal McDowell disparagely called the left-overs – it is obvious that Sinn Féin are going to do well, and may triple their seats on current levels of support. They are playing the role of angry outsider well, and Pearse Doherty's appointment as Finance spokesperson before the Budget was an inspired move. Doherty is eloquently venting the ordinary person's anger at the Government as well as highlighting the perceived closeness of the three main parties. Despite his high opinion ratings, I think Gerry Adams is the Achilles Heel for Sinn Fein in the South – not through his colourful history in the IRA (noone cares anymore), but through his lack of understanding of economics, in the South in particular. His media appearances have been far from assured, and they will try to wheel out Doherty as much as possible. Nevertheless I expect Adams to win a seat in Louth. Overall, I'd like to see Sinn Féin do well, as I'd definitely be more of a fan of their economics policy than the Blueshirts. The previously ridiculed prospect of Sinn Fein being in Government by 2016 is a very likely one, in my view.

The Greens should face facts - they are going to be wiped out, in the Dáil at least. It's going to be a question of getting rid of John Gormley, admit they made a mistake in going into Government with Fianna Fail, and seek to re-establish itself as a viable party of the Left, rather than Fianna Fail's whipping boys. Overall I do think they had a handful of successes in Government (Civil Partnership being the most important one) and Eamon Ryan seemed to be a decent minister who thought outside the box, but the price to pay was too much for them.

Concerning the United Left Alliance, I don't think it's outside the realms of possibility that they will win 6 or 7 seats, but the most realistic is around 3. The measure of their success will be determined by how 'united' they actually appear, as the micro-Left are notorious for their in-fighting. Sometimes I think their vehemence towards some parties, Labour in particular, stems from personal anguish rather than overt political differences (Joe Higgins still hasn't gotten over being kicked out of the Labour Party).

That's my view from the start of the campaign anyway, I'm sure it's going to change regularly between now and February 25^th. My foremost hope for the election is that a Left-Right divide actually takes place in Ireland – better (90 years) late than never.